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Where will world oil demand fall in 2023?

PostTime:2023-05-30 ClickNum:706  【Close

 Where will oil demand fall this year? It depends on who you ask: 01/IEA International Energy Agency IEA revealed in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) released this month that global oil demand is currently expected to grow by 2.2 million barrels per day year-on-year, with an average of 102 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency's OMR in April showed that global oil demand increased by 2 million barrels per day, reaching a record high of 101.9 million barrels per day. In its May OMR, the IEA stated, "We have raised our forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 to 2.2 million barrels per day in this report, and China's rebound is even stronger than previously expected China is the second largest oil consumer in the world after the United States, and its oil demand will account for nearly 60% of global growth by 2023. At the beginning of this year, China, India, and the Middle East experienced record high oil demand, which is enough to compensate for the industrial weakness and sluggish oil consumption of OECD member countries Supported by consumer spending and personal liquidity, OECD oil consumption accounts for only 15% of this year's economic growth. According to the "Latest Short Term Energy Outlook" (STEO) released by the EIA this month, the global average daily oil consumption will reach 10.099 million barrels by 2023. By quarter, EIA's STEO for May predicts consumption of 10.082 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 10.158 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 10.167 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. The EIA's previous STEO forecast released in April predicted that global oil demand will reach 10.087 million barrels per day by 2023. In the May STEO report, the EIA pointed out that "although demand growth for liquid fuels faces downward risks by the end of 2024, we expect seasonal growth in oil consumption and a decrease in OPEC crude oil production to bring some upward pressure to crude oil prices in the coming months According to our forecast, global liquid fuel consumption will increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. It is expected that the growth in liquid fuel demand will occur in non OECD Asia, led by China and India We expect this demand growth to balance the global oil market between the third quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, and push Brent crude oil prices back from their current levels to between $75 and $80 per barrel. "Standard Chartered Bank revealed in a report to Rigzone last week that it expects global oil demand to be around 10.094 million barrels per day this year. The report emphasizes that this data has increased by 156000 barrels per day compared to last month. In addition, Standard Chartered Bank predicts in its latest report that demand will reach 10.047 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, 10.192 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 10.178 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Analysts of Standard Chartered Bank pointed out in the report: "There seems to be a disconnect between the situation seen by energy economists from the data and the actions of speculative traders." "We believe that this disconnect is the result of the declining oil market sentiment and the macro dominant characteristics - we have found that in the past three months, most traders have become more pessimistic about oil demand."

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